By Mike McGann, Editor, The Times @mikemcgann.bsky.social
If incoming President Donald Trump enacts some of the policies he says he’s going to, we can expect economic pain here in Chester County.
A lot.
Rounding up millions of immigrants (in some cases without regard to their citizenship or residency status) will devastate multiple local small businesses — crops will go unpicked, building projects will slow and stall and all sorts of other small operations, from landscapers to restaurants will be hit hard by a shortage of workers.
At the same time, proposed tariffs will spike prices for various food stuff and building materials. Housing prices will continue to rise, pricing even more people out of the market. Tax cuts for the rich combined with cuts to Medicaid, food assistance and veterans’ benefits will drop consumer spending. If Medicare and Social Security see cuts, it will be even worse.
In short, both locally and nationally, the plan seems to be to tank a pretty strong economy, and it will hurt, likely more than the 2008 economic crash.
Trade wars, as Trump seems hell-bent on starting and as history teaches us, virtually always hurt the US economy more than anything else. The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 deepened and lengthened the Great Depression. Similar policy in the 1890s, led to a severe depression from 1893 to 1897, despite Trump claiming it was a time of great economic prosperity. Trump’s previous attempt at agricultural tariffs really hurt farmers, forcing a federal bailout in his last term.
I’m not trying to be a Pollyanna — I’m far from the only one pointing out these economic facts. It is no different from arguing in favor of the law of gravity, centuries of the study of economics bear out these facts.
The truth is that people need to start getting prepared. An economic hurricane could be coming — unless Congress or the courts slow or stop some of these policies, which seems unlikely at this point.
I’m at a loss to understand the thinking behind these moves — Trump seems to think he can extract concessions from other world leaders (Mexico told him to pound sand, despite his claims otherwise) and it seems unlikely Canada or China will bend the knee, but instead act in their own best interests and respond in kind.
But yet, here we are.
Everyone needs to have a plan on how to survive the next 48 months of economic chaos. Businesses are already making purchases in advance to delay the impact of tariffs (I bought a new computer this past week, as I had anticipated replacing my primary work desktop next spring, but didn’t want to spend an extra $200 to $300 in tariff taxes).
I get that the current economy is fragile. Those who are doing well these days tend to be in the upper middle class and above, while it remains a struggle for those less well off. It won’t take much of a economic shakeup to slow consumer spending, which will, in turn, slow the economy and further slow consumer spending. It is a vicious cycle and one difficult to reverse (think the economy between 2008 and 2013 or so).
All I can suggest is to think ahead, be careful with your spending and and stash whatever savings you can right now before things get worse (again, history teaches us these kind of policies really hurt the overall economy).
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You may notice I no longer link my content with X, but have switched to BlueSky.
It was bad enough that X began suppressing links to local news (as does Facebook), but the combination of trolls and bots have made the site untenable. Posting something as mundane as “I like pie” would lead to hateful responses and outright abuse, let alone posting something more controversial.
BlueSky is more civilized. One can have an adult conversation without things devolving into ad hominem attacks for the most part. Also, users have a lot more say about what shows up in their timelines.
I made the switch and ditched my X account, as so many millions have. If you are a social media person (and I don’t blame anyone who is not), you might want to check it out.
